"Global Annual Outlook for Wind, Solar, and Hydropower Generation Capacity 2026" Released

Beijing, February 5th (Correspondent Li Chunjian) — The "Global Annual Outlook for Wind, Solar, and Hydropower Generation Capacity 2026" was released on the 5th. According to the forecast, the global average available power generation hours for wind power in 2026 will be approximately 2310, for photovoltaic (solar) power approximately 1340, while hydropower generation capacity is generally projected to remain stable with an increase compared to 2025, growing by about 7%.

Specifically, the global average available power generation hours for wind power in 2026 are slightly lower than in 2025. Considering capacity expansion, wind power generation capacity is expected to increase by 6%. The global average available power generation hours for photovoltaic power are slightly higher than in 2025. Considering capacity expansion, photovoltaic power generation capacity is projected to increase by about 25%.

The forecast also indicates: China's average available power generation hours for wind power will be 2100, slightly lower than in 2025. Considering capacity expansion, total wind power generation capacity is expected to rise by about 2%. China's average available power generation hours for photovoltaic power will be 1320, essentially consistent with 2025 levels. Considering capacity expansion, total photovoltaic power generation capacity is projected to increase by about 25%. It is anticipated that water inflows in Northwest China will increase throughout the year, while inflows in Southwest China may decrease.

Xiong Shaoyuan, Deputy Administrator of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), stated that China's power system has entered a "new energy-dominated" phase. By the end of 2025, renewable energy installations accounted for over 60% of the total capacity. Against the backdrop of energy landscape restructuring and climate change, the new-type power system has an urgent need for climate resource assessment and extreme disaster warnings. The integration of meteorology and energy has become a crucial measure for ensuring energy security.

In 2025, the National Climate Center of the CMA, in collaboration with relevant parties, released the inaugural "Global Annual Outlook for New Energy Power Generation 2025". It proposed a trinity framework of "meteorological element forecasting – identification of wind and solar farm sites – new energy power generation capacity prediction", systematically achieving monthly and annual forecasts for global wind and solar power generation capacity. This filled a technological gap in the field of medium- to long-term forecasting for new energy and was hailed by the World Meteorological Organization in a published article as "a milestone in interdisciplinary innovation between energy and meteorology".

Xiong Shaoyuan noted that this latest release optimizes forecasting technology and algorithms, expands the scope to include hydropower forecasting, and enhances prediction accuracy. It represents a significant achievement in collaborative innovation between meteorology and energy, and will provide scientific reference for power planning, trading, and related activities.